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北京这样的都市将会发生什么?

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年09月17日 00:30:01
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(  如)(果)(雾)(霾)(成)(为)(长)(期)(的)(,如)(北)(京)(这)(样)(的)(都)(市)(将)(发)(生)(什)(么)(?或)(许)(我)(仍)(可)(想)(象)(经)(济)(学)(家)(习)(惯)(于)(想)(象)(的)(某)(种)(长)(期)(均)(衡)(状)(态)(。  首)(先)(,人)(口)(将)(从)(大)(都)(市)(向)(雾)(霾)(尚)(可)(忍)(受)(的)(中)(小)(城)(市)(或)(山)(区)(迁)(徙)(,前)(提)(是)(雾)(霾)(被)(医)(学)(确)(认)(为)(肺)(癌)(和)(抑)(郁)(症)(的)(长)(期)(主)(因)(——极)(不)(利)(于)(儿)(童)(健)(康)(成)(长)(,和)(心)(脑)(系)(统)(疾)(病)(的)(短)(期)(主)(因)(——极)(不)(利)(于)(中)(老)(年)(人)(养)(生)(。
  互)(联)(网)(技)(术)(普)(及)(和)(成)(本)(降)(低)(,有)(利)(于)(人)(口)(从)(密)(集)(到)(疏)(朗)(的)(迁)(徙)(过)(程)(。
  其)(次)(,如)(果)(国)(内)(的)(生)(存)(环)(境)(持)(续)(恶)(化)(,势)(必)(诱)(致)(中)(高)(收)(入)(群)(体)((以)(及)(低)(收)(入)(但)(年)(轻)(的)(群)(体)()移)(民)(海)(外)(——这)(一)(效)(应)(十)(分)(类)(似)(于)(持)(续)(战)(争)(诱)(致)(的)(移)(民)(潮)(。
  谁)(也)(无)(法)(阻)(拦)(,因)(为)(在)(马)(斯)(洛)(需)(求)(层)(级)(当)(中)(,基)(本)(的)(安)(全)(感)(,是)(最)(低)(需)(求)(,如)(果)(一)(个)(社)(会)(不)(能)(满)(足)(这)(一)(最)(低)(需)(求)(,这)(一)(社)(会)(就)(不)(再)(是)(适)(合)(人)(类)(生)(活)(的)(。
  与)(战)(争)(难)(民)(的)(年)(龄)(结)(构)(类)(似)(,在)(成)(本)(制)(约)(下)(,雾)(霾)(难)(民)(更)(多)(由)(儿)(童)(和)(年)(轻)(人)(组)(成)(,因)(为)(这)(些)(人)(以)(更)(高)(概)(率)(延)(续)(他)(们)(的)(家)(族)((这)(是)(人)(性)(的)(生)(物)(本)(能)()。
  关)(于)(人)(口)(迁)(徙)(的)(各)(种)(学)(说)(当)(中)(,适)(用)(于)(雾)(霾)(移)(民)(的)(是)("pushing-pulling"与)("移)(民)(成)(本)("的)(联)(合)(作)(用)(模)(型)(。所)(谓)("pushing"就)(是)(被)(本)(国)(的)(恶)(劣)(条)(件)("推)(出)(去)("的)(那)(些)(人)(。所)(谓)("pulling"就)(是)(被)(他)(国)(的)(优)(厚)(条)(件)("拉)(出)(去)("的)(那)(些)(人)(。
  如)(果)(移)(民)(成)(本)(足)(够)(高)(,不)(难)(想)(象)(,最)(适)(合)(移)(民)(海)(外)(的)(是)(那)(些)(敏)(感)(地)(不)(喜)(欢)(本)(国)(生)(活)(条)(件)(并)(且)(具)(有)(高)(学)(历)(从)(而)(很)(容)(易)(被)(他)(国)("拉)(出)(去)("的)(那)(些)(人)(。可)(是)(,这)(就)(是)(所)(谓)("脑)(流)(失)("呀)(。
  我)(的)(同)(事)(胡)(大)(源)(,根)(据)(报)(道)(,估)(计)(北)(京)(地)(区)(的)(雾)(霾)(导)(致)(的)(经)(济)(损)(失)(大)(约)(在)(700亿)((每)(年)()的)(水)(平)(。我)(估)(计)(,大)(源)(的)(估)(计)(无)(法)(考)(虑)(如)("脑)(流)(失)("这)(样)(的)(长)(期)(损)(失)(。类)(似)(地)(,我)(们)(也)(缺)(乏)(数)(据)(来)(预)(测)(长)(期)(雾)(霾)(导)(致)(的)(各)(类)(健)(康)(损)(失)(。
  依)(照)(我)(的)(另)(一)(同)(事)(宋)(国)(青)(常)(用)(的)(拇)(指)(规)(则)(,家)(庭)(收)(入)(的)(六)(倍)(,大)(约)(是)(家)(庭)(财)(富)(。与)(此)(类)(似)(,我)(估)(计)(,每)(年)(700亿)(元)(的)(收)(入)(损)(失)(,它)(的)(六)(倍)(,也)(就)(是)(大)(约)(5000亿)(元)(,是)(长)(期)(的)(损)(失)(——中)(国)(转)(型)(期)(社)(会)(的)(折)(现)(率)(很)(高)(,未)(来)(各)(年)(的)(经)(济)(损)(失)(折)(现)(到)(当)(前)(时)(刻)(,六)(年)(之)(后)(损)(失)(的)(或)(可)(忽)(略)(不)(计)(。
  上)(述)(估)(算)(仍)(远)(未)(表)(现)(持)(续)(雾)(霾)(的)(长)(期)(影)(响)(,因)(为)(这)(些)(估)(算)(仅)(仅)(是)(经)(济)(方)(面)(的)(,并)(未)(考)(虑)(政)(治)(的)(和)(社)(会)(的)(影)(响)(。
  不)(论)(如)(何)(,我)(们)(姑)(且)(承)(认)(5000亿)(元)(是)(雾)(霾)(导)(致)(的)(北)(京)(地)(区)(的)(经)(济)(损)(失)(。于)(是)(我)(们)(可)(以)(询)(问)(北)(京)(的)(政)(府)(,用)(这)(样)(一)(笔)(钱)((5000亿)()可)(能)(做)(哪)(些)(事)(情)(来)(降)(低)(雾)(霾)(?
  我)(很)(悲)(观)(,我)(不)(认)(为)(这)(笔)(钱)(可)(使)(北)(京)(的)(雾)(霾)(消)(失)(或)(减)(少)(至)(能)(忍)(受)(的)(水)(平)(。
  根)(据)(科)(学)(院)(的)(一)(份)(报)(告)(,北)(京)(地)(区)(的)(雾)(霾)(成)(分)(主)(要)((例)(如)(70%)来)(自)(汽)(车)(尾)(气)(排)(放)(,可)(是)(京)(津)(冀)(地)(区)(的)(雾)(霾)(成)(分)(主)(要)((例)(如)(50%以)(上)()来)(自)(燃)(煤)(。
  我)(们)(记)(得)(2015年)(9月)(的)(蓝)(天)(,被)(称)(为)("阅)(兵)(蓝)("。在)(一)(个)(多)(月)(时)(间)(里)(,据)(报)(道)(,京)(津)(冀)(地)(区)(完)(全)(停)(产)(的)((或)(许)(可)(疑)()企)(业)(数)(目)(大)(约)(5000家)(。
  这)(些)(企)(业)(养)(活)(了)(多)(少)(人)(口)(?或)(许)(有)(很)(多)(小)(企)(业)(,或)(许)(,平)(均)(而)(言)(,一)(家)(企)(业)(养)(活)(100名)(工)(人)(和)(他)(们)(的)(家)(庭)((五)(口)(之)(家)(),那)(么)(,50万)(工)(人)(家)(庭)(总)(共)(有)(大)(约)(250万)(人)(口)(。
  不)(考)(虑)(地)(方)(政)(府)(的)(财)(政)(损)(失)(,单)(纯)(命)(令)(这)(些)(企)(业)(永)(远)(停)(产)(,中)(国)(社)(会)(可)(能)(需)(要)(完)(全)(负)(担)(250万)(人)(口)(的)(生)(活)(费)(,假)(设)(每)(年)(每)(人)(4万)(元)(,一)(共)(要)(支)(付)(的)(费)(用)(是)(1000亿)(元)(。试)(问)(,北)(京)(市)(政)(府)(愿)(意)(每)(年)(损)(失)(700亿)(元)(还)(是)(愿)(意)(每)(年)(支)(付)(1000亿)(元)(?
  其)(实)(,也)(可)(以)(干)(脆)(由)(北)(京)(市)(转)(移)(支)(付)(每)(年)(700亿)(元)(给)(这)(些)(企)(业)(,前)(提)(是)(永)(久)(停)(产)(。不)(过)(,动)(态)(而)(言)(,这)(一)(方)(法)(无)(效)(,因)(为)(它)(可)(能)(诱)(致)(更)(多)(的)(污)(染)(企)(业)(到)(北)(京)(的)(政)(府)(来)("索)(赔)("。更)(何)(况)(,这)(些)(完)(全)(停)(产)(的)(企)(业)(还)(有)("乘)(数)("效)(应)(呢)(。
  能)(否)(诱)(致)(对)(抗)(雾)(霾)(的)(新)(技)(术)(?当)(然)(可)(以)(。问)(题)(是)(,这)(是)(中)(国)(经)(济)(发)(展)(的)(现)(状)(,西)(方)(社)(会)(负)(责)(研)(发)(而)(中)(国)(负)(责)(制)(造)(。雾)(霾)(是)(中)(国)(现)(象)(,西)(方)(研)(发)(部)(门)(没)(有)(积)(极)(性)(研)(发)(对)(抗)(雾)(霾)(的)(新)(技)(术)(。
  于)(是)(,中)(国)(必)(须)(,这)(一)(次)(是)(真)(的)(,自)(主)(研)(发)(对)(抗)(雾)(霾)(的)(技)(术)(。我)(很)(怀)(疑)(德)(国)(研)(发)(的)(过)(滤)(雾)(霾)(的)(纱)(窗)(,之)(所)(以)(一)(年)(多)(没)(有)(进)(入)(市)(场)(,是)(否)(合)(用)(?
  根)(据)(一)(份)(报)(告)(,各)(种)(口)(罩)(的)(抗)(雾)(霾)(实)(验)(,其)(中)(3M专)(业)(口)(罩)((带)(气)(阀)(的)()大)(约)(可)(降)(低)(PM2.5百)(分)(之)(九)(十)(。也)(就)(是)(说)(,目)(前)(室)(外)(污)(染)(指)(数)(500,带)(着)(这)(种)(口)(罩)(可)(使)(进)(入)(鼻)(腔)(的)(空)(气)(的)(污)(染)(指)(数)(降)(低)(至)(大)(约)(50,仍)(然)(不)(健)(康)(,但)(凑)(合)(活)(着)(吧)(。
  我)(的)(观)(察)(,绝)(大)(多)(数)(开)(车)(的)(中)(国)(人)(,更)(愿)(意)(继)(续)(开)(车)(,同)(时)(在)(车)(内)(安)(置)(一)(台)(或)(更)(多)(空)(气)(净)(化)(器)((几)(百)(元)(的)(那)(种)()可)(降)(低)(污)(染)(指)(数)(百)(分)(之)(七)(十)(以)(上)(,然)(后)(,在)(室)(外)(或)(车)(外)(戴)(口)(罩)(。所)(以)(,最)(终)(的)(受)(害)(者)(仍)(是)(他)(们)(的)(孩)(子)((更)(易)(污)(染)(更)(缺)(乏)(戴)(口)(罩)(的)(习)(惯)(更)(喜)(欢)(户)(外)(活)(动)()。
  最)(后)(,我)(意)(识)(到)(雾)(霾)(在)(北)(京)(地)(区)(似)(乎)(有)(一)(种)(类)(似)("收)(益)(递)(增)("的)(趋)(势)(:严)(重)(雾)(霾)(导)(致)(更)(严)(重)(的)(雾)(霾)(。这)(就)(意)(味)(着)(开)(篇)(所)(述)(的)(第)(一)(阈)(值)(在)(持)(续)(下)(降)(,直)(到)(使)(北)(京)(地)(区)(永)(远)(笼)(罩)(于)(雾)(霾)(之)(中)(。这)(当)(然)(是)(一)(种)(可)(能)(的)(均)(衡)(,或)(许)(是)(最)(可)(能)(出)(现)(的)(长)(期)(均)(衡)(。
  那)(时)(,根)(据)(以)(上)(分)(析)(,北)(京)(的)(大)(街)(小)(巷)(能)(见)(度)(不)(过)(五)(米)(,昼)(夜)(灯)(火)(通)(明)(,防)(毒)(面)(具)(和)(氧)(气)(筒)((至)(少)(在)(新)(技)(术)(出)(现)(之)(前)()成)(为)(与)(iPad同)(等)(重)(要)(的)(日)(常)(可)(穿)(戴)(设)(备)(。由)(于)(终)(年)(不)(见)(阳)(光)(,"雾)(霾)(抑)(郁)(症)("成)(为)(北)(京)(地)(区)(最)(常)(见)(且)(最)(高)(发)(的)(心)(理)(障)(碍)(。
  因)(此)(北)(京)(地)(区)(工)(作)(人)(群)(的)(必)(要)(劳)(保)(条)(件)(之)(一)(就)(是)(每)(年)(要)(有)(更)(多)(时)(间)(在)(外)(地)(度)(假)(,每)(年)(这)(样)(的)(假)(期)(可)(能)(长)(达)(半)(年)(。
  继)(续)(想)(象)(:由)(于)("脑)(流)(失)(",北)(京)(地)(区)(将)(只)(有)(科)(技)(含)(量)(很)(低)(的)(产)(业)(。第)(一)(流)(的)(教)(师)(和)(学)(校)(将)(最)(早)(迁)(徙)(到)(污)(染)(更)(少)(的)(外)(地)(——例)(如)(张)(家)(界)(。接)(送)(孩)(子)(的)(校)(车)(,将)(从)(市)(内)(大)(巴)(改)(为)(跨)(市)(包)(机)(。
  当)(然)(,还)(有)(一)(种)(可)(能)(性)(:京)(津)(冀)(一)(体)(化)(,借)(助)(于)(政)(治)(强)(势)(,将)(大)(部)(分)(污)(染)(企)(业)(南)(迁)(。
  这)(也)(是)(中)(国)(历)(史)(的)(常)(态)(,生)(存)(困)(难)(的)(北)(方)(人)(不)(断)(侵)(扰)(南)(方)(,可)(以)(一)(直)(侵)(略)(到)(亚)(洲)(大)(陆)(的)(最)(南)(端)(,或)(任)(何)(天)(然)(屏)(障)((喜)(马)(拉)(雅)(山)()。污)(染)(的)(南)(迁)(,很)(可)(能)(是)(一)(种)(选)(择)(。(汪)(丁)(丁)(系)(北)(京)(大)(学)(国)(发)(院)(经)(济)(学)(教)(授)()
  第)(一)(财)(经)(转)(载)(自)("北)(大)(国)(发)(院)(网)(站)("
)


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